Monthly growth rates have jumped for the six months to July compared to the six months to June, Extrapolating recent growth rates to June and to July, we expect a total of 10,000 to 14,000 Green Deal plans by the end of March 2014.
Request a copy of our presentation on projections and analysis of the latest Green Deal statistics by emailing us at tvf@theventuringfirm.com .
The Green Deal was launched in early 2013; DECC has recently published the latest statistics through to July 2014.
A pick-up in growth rate is driving up projections for Green Deal plans
Monthly growth rates have jumped for the six months to July compared to the six months to June.
With recent growth trends continuing, we project between 6,000 and 10,000 more Green Deal plans being confirmed before the end of March 2015.
This is based on extrapolating recent compound monthly growth rates of 13% for the six months to June and 17% for the six months to July – a substantial jump.
With this extrapolation, we expect a total of 10,000 to 14,000 Green Deal plans by the end of March 2014.
Higher growth drives up projections for Green Deal Provider workloads
Growth in plan numbers outstrips growth in Green Deal Provider numbers, driving up utilisation.
With recent growth trends continuing, we project between 28 and 36 pre-live plans on average for each Green Deal Provider by March 2015.
This represents an increase in Green Deal workload for Providers of between 115% and 170%.
This is based on extrapolating recent compound monthly growth rates for Green Deal plans and for GD Providers.
With this extrapolation, we expect more than doubling in workload on average for each Green Deal Provider by March 2015.
Further insights from the latest statistics
Growth in Green Deal plans is the strongest since April, driven by accelerating growth in assessments.
The strong growth in assessments is now being seen in newly confirmed plans and plans new to installation.
Growth in confirmed plans is being driven by new plans rather than delays in moving plans to installation.
The bottleneck in processing confirmed plans has dropped off rapidly since May, with fewer than 15% of plans ‘stuck as confirmed’.
A bottleneck is beginning to grow again in installation, with over 20% of plans taking longer than two months to install.
Whilst improving, a reasonable view of current average workloads is that underutilisation continues to be a feature of Green Deal work.
See more
Request a copy of our presentation on projections and analysis of the latest Green Deal statistics by emailing us at tvf@theventuringfirm.com .
Subscribe to this blog – on the left – to receive further updates to our analysis of the Green Deal. The next update will be soon after publication of the next monthly report by DECC on 23rd September.
To learn more about The Venturing Firm, please look at http://www.theventuringfirm.com/ .
Sources
DECC, “Domestic Green Deal and Energy Company Obligation in Great Britain, Monthly report”, 21st August 2014, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/green-deal-and-energy-company-obligation-eco-monthly-statistics-august-2014
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