The latest report confirms continued growth in Green Deal plans. Dig a little deeper and there are falling conversion rates, a bottleneck before installation and continued low utilisation of Green Deal providers and installers.
The Green Deal was launched over a year ago in early 2013. DECC has recently published the latest statistics through to June 2014.
Headline numbers show continued growth in Green Deal plans
Growth in total Green Deal plans has been relatively strong over the last four months following a short hiatus at the start of 2014.
By the end of June 2014 3,234 plans have been confirmed since the Green Deal was launched, up 16% on May.
However, measuring by compound monthly growth rate, monthly growth for the six months from January to June 2014 was 13% p.m., down from 31% for July to December 2013.
That said, 13% growth per month represents a tripling in size over a year.
Falling conversion rates and flat ‘new’ plans
Conversion rates are falling at each stage of development for GD plans:
- In June, there were 406 newly confirmed Green Deal plans, up 4% on May – a conversion rate from assessments of around 1.7%, down from 1.8% for May
- 283 plans were newly being installed in June, 1 plan more than in May – a conversion rate from confirmed plans of around 33% in June, down from 37% in May
- The number of newly live plans were up 11% on May, to 215 newly live plans in June – a conversion rate from being installed of around 36%, down from 38% in May
A bottleneck exists pre-installation
The number of confirmed plans grew by 14% in June compared to May, continuing a trend over the last few months.
This growth was driven by a build up in existing confirmed plans, those yet to start being installed. It is taking longer to start installation for GD plans, indicating a pre-installation bottleneck.
An increasing number of new plans are being installed, though the growth in plans being installed has been about half the growth in confirmed plans, over the last three months.
Utilisation remains very low
Advisor numbers have continued to grow and now stand at over 4,000, up 7% on May. Advisor utilisation has increased from around 4 assessments per advisor per month on average in December 2013 to around 7 in June 2014, showing a much improved situation. Of course some advisors will be busier than others, though on average this still represents substantial under-utilisation for work related to Green Deal.
There was no increase in the number of Green Deal providers in June 2014. Utilisation of Green Deal providers has increased to around 10.5 pre-live plans per provider in June 2014. However, this increase is driven mainly by the number of existing confirmed plans (see earlier comments on bottleneck).
The number of Green Deal installers rose by around 3% in June. Utilisation of installers has improved over the last five months, rising from a low of 17 plans per 100 installers in February to over 24 plans per 100 installers in June. Whilst installer numbers are relatively flat, it is hard to argue this is the driver of the pre-installation bottleneck, as utilisation on Green Deal work remains exceptionally low.
What’s next
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Sources
DECC, Green Deal and Energy Company Obligation (ECO): monthly statistics (July 2014), 22nd July 2014, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/green-deal-and-energy-company-obligation-eco-monthly-statistics-july-2014
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